The Jevons paradox

Coming back from Malvern last evening, I was struck more than usually by the degree to which people seem to have money (and carbon) to burn. Above is a detail from a photograph I took on a bright Summer day in a tent at Cheltenham Racecourse - Greenbelt: they should know better. Now, as Christmas approaches, I noted once again that there is hardly a house without its tree lit up, visible through the unclosed curtains. Worse still is the number of houses with flashing lights festooned over their exterior.

And, yes, the roofs of some of those houses even sport photovoltaic panels. Thus supporting the theory of W.S. Jevons, writing some 170 years ago: Jevons argued that improvements in fuel efficiency tend to increase, rather than decrease, fuel use: he observed that England's consumption of coal soared after James Watt introduced his coal-fired steam engine, greatly improving on the efficiency of earlier designs. Watt's innovations made coal a more cost-effective power source, leading to the increased use of the steam engine in a wide range of industries. This in turn increased total coal consumption, even as the amount of coal required for any particular application fell. At that time, many worried that coal reserves were dwindling: some thought increasing efficiency would reduce consumption. Jevons however argued that further increases in efficiency would tend to increase the use of coal. Hence, increasing efficiency would tend to increase, rather than reduce, the rate at which England's coal deposits were being depleted.

Similarly, those benefiting from the feed-in tarrif are saying, perhaps: "What the heck? Now we don't need to worry about turning the lights off!" What prospect therefore of fossil fuels being left in the ground?

Greenbelt 2011

As always, festivals abound this bank holiday weekend. On Monday, we shall be at Presteigne for one of their final concerts. We passed the Reading tented city on the train on Thursday. Edmund and the boys are camping at a festival in Leicestershire, and Upton-on-Severn was also awash with campers when I drove through yesterday.

At Cheltenham Racecourse, meanwhile, there's Greenbelt, and I biked up there today, to do duty on the Christian Ecology Link stall: plenty of people showed more-than-polite interest, and it was good to catch up with other long-standing CELites such as Tim Cooper (on the right here).

When I wasn't talking to people at our stall in the G-Source exhibition area, I was taking photographs: my collection illustrates what a happy time apart Greenbelt offers for a wide range of people and Christian proclivities. All the encounters I had filled me with hope, everyone giving so much more of themselves than they do at a sophisticated Cheltenham dinner party.

"Take an olive seed"

Today's photograph is of the sign outside the Greenbelt Festival pub, one of the very many and varied tents erected on Cheltenham Racecourse for the weekend. I was helping man the stall of Christian Ecology Link at Greenbelt, an interesting experience for me. I wore a CEL T shirt, to increase my visibility (as if needed). Normally I am not to be seen dead in one.

"Take an olive seed" was the theme of the Sunday Morning Worship at the Festival, said to have been attended by 15,000 people. It was brilliantly devised to celebrate the diversity of those attending, and of the traditions that come together within the Holy Land: there were prayers and readings in both Hebrew and Arabic.

And the Kiss of Peace, for these Swine Flu aware times, was transformed into the elbow bump of peace, as demonstrated here by two of my neighbours. They were volunteering on behalf of CAFOD, drawing attention to the need for climate justice. Appropriately, the CAFOD stall was next door to CEL's: both were well-patronised, any any rate during my sojurn.

Of course, masses of those at Greenbelt seemed intent on other things than climate justice or a greener church: that's why CEL is needed. However, the people who bothered to stop by seemed keen to meet up with others in their local area: I collected quite a few email addresses, and have been busy since I returned putting people in touch with one another. It's good to be able to help with the sort of introductions and connections that only a national organisation like CEL can make.

rus in urbe

It's Bank Holiday weekend, but why join queues of cars on the road? I did venture up to Greenbelt last evening: amazing crowds, transforming Cheltenham racecourse for the weekend; but going for the evening only, I felt more a tourist than a pilgrim. (John Bell of the Iona Community impressed me as a speaker; and it was good to talk to those on the CEL stand.)

Yes, here we still are, in Cheltenham. The sale board remains up, but it's more than a fortnight since anyone came to look at the house. On a rare dry August Saturday, Ida (aged 10 months), having discarded a sock, sits under the russet tree to eat her lunch... and gets her beans in a row.